AGNC 3/10/2023 Shareholder/Stockholder Letter Transcript:
022
INVESTING IN
AMERICAN HOMEOWNERSHIP
ANNUAL REPORT
$6.6 B
May 2008
$59.5 B
Market Capitalization1
Investment Portfolio2
357%
51
97%
Total Stock Return
Since IPO3
Employees2
Fixed Rate
2
12.6%
0.87%
320,000+
Dividend Yield4
5
Homes Financed6
Dear Fellow Stockholders:
As we approach AGNC s 15-year anniversary on May 15, 2023, we are increasingly optimistic that we may be
entering one of the most favorable and potentially durable investment environments for Agency MBS in the
uncertainty, aggressive monetary policy tightening, and growing recession concerns.
repricing events have preceded our most favorable investment environments, and, to that end, we are excited about
the go-forward opportunity that is emerging as we enter the new year.
Broad Market Total Returns in 20227
Bloomberg U.S .
MBS Index
Bloomberg U.S .
Aggregate Bond
Index
10 Year U.S.
Treasury
S&P 500
Bloomberg
Mortgage R EIT
Index
Nasdaq
Composite
0%
(5%)
(10%)
(15%)
(20%)
(12%)
(13%)
(15%)
(18%)
(25%)
(24%)
(30%)
(33%)
(35%)
Fixed Income
Equity
AGNC Annual Report
1
A Look Back at 2022: Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Broad Market Volatility
stimulus and supply chain disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed embarked on a historically
aggressive tightening campaign, raising the Federal Funds rate by 4.25% through a series of seven rate hikes
between March and December. In response, interest rates across the yield curve rose materially, with the yield on
the 10-year Treasury increasing by almost 2.50%.
Dec-22
Dec-21
Dec-20
Dec-19
Dec-18
Dec-17
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-22
Dec-21
0.0%
Dec-20
0.0%
Dec-19
1.0%
Dec-18
1.0%
Dec-17
2.0%
Dec-16
2.0%
Dec-15
3.0%
Dec-14
3.0%
Dec-13
4.0%
Dec-12
4.0%
Dec-11
5.0%
Dec-10
5.0%
Dec-09
10 Year Treasury Rates9
Dec-08
Fed Funds Target Midpoint8
Dec-14
To put that move in historical context, the 10-year Treasury s -15% total return in 2022 was the worst annual
performance for these bonds in decades. The sharp increase in Treasury rates also pushed primary mortgage
rates to their highest levels in the last two decades. The equity markets were similarly adversely impacted by the
Fed s actions, as the S&P 500 posted a -18% total return in 2022, its worst annual performance since the 2008
Great Financial Crisis.
10 Year U.S Treasury
Change > 100 bps Over Rolling 60-Day Period
throughout the year.
AGNC Annual Report
2
result, mortgage spreads to benchmark interest rates across the mortgage coupon stack widened to levels last
experienced during the Great Financial Crisis, driving a -12% total return for the unlevered Bloomberg U.S. MBS
Index in 2022, its worst year on record since the Index s inception in 1976.
30 Year Current Coupon MBS to 10 Year UST Spread10
190 bps
200
180
178 bps
+ 3 Standard Deviations
160
158 bps
140
120
bps
100
Average: 79 bps
80
60
40
Dec-22
Dec-21
Dec-20
Dec-19
Dec-18
Dec-17
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
0
Dec-08
20
$ Y
return for AGNC in 2022, comprised of $1.44 in dividends per common share and a $5.91 decline in tangible net
book value per common share. Despite outsized and prolonged market volatility, AGNC delivered strong net spread
and dollar roll income, excluding catch-up premium amortization, of $3.11 per common share in 2022, highlighting
the resilient earnings power of our portfolio.
While full year results for 2022 were disappointing, the fourth quarter of 2022 provided reason for optimism.
Following the peak of macroeconomic and monetary policy uncertainty in September and October, bond market
positive developments, coupled with the historically compelling valuation levels in Agency MBS, attracted investors
drove the 8.4% increase in our tangible net book value per common share and our 12.3% economic return in the
fourth quarter of 2022.
AGNC Annual Report
3
3/10/2023 Letter Continued (Full PDF)